This characteristic offers a capsule have a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose probabilities for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve are usually not fairly as robust as they beforehand had been.
Within the first version of this weblog for the 2026 run for the roses, the main target is on what has modified for the reason that begin of the brand new yr.
HEATING UP
Strategic Danger has some work to do by way of enhancing his pace figures, however I actually favored what I noticed in his 4 ½-length victory within the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3 at Oaklawn Park. He accomplished his last quarter-mile in an attention grabbing :23.78, which is spectacular ending pace for a 3-year-old racing round two turns in January. That adopted a breakout nine-length romp within the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire In Actuality Stakes Nov. 29, 2025, at Gulfstream Park for Corridor of Fame coach Mark Casse. You received’t discover a Noble Chook colt out of an Afleet Alex mare on any modern pedigree lists, however his bloodlines point out stamina needs to be no problem. Noble Chook’s 4 stakes wins got here at distances from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles and Strategic Danger hails from the household that produced champions Inside Data and Smuggler in addition to Grade 1 winner Educated Danger. That helps clarify why he was doing his finest working late within the Smarty Jones. Subsequent up is the $1 million Southwest Stakes Jan. 31 at Oaklawn.
It’s cheap to be skeptical about So Comfortable’s probabilities to proceed to excel because the races get longer on the Kentucky Derby path. His sire, Runhappy, is a champion sprinter and he has but to compete in a race longer than seven-eighths of a mile. However his two begins so far have been actually good. He defeated 9 horses in a three-quarter-length debut win Nov. 22 at Del Mar after which rallied from final of 5 — not famous within the chart however he was final briefly on the backstretch — to win the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes by two lengths Jan. 10 at Santa Anita Park. Skilled by Mark Glatt, So Comfortable delivered an expert effort underneath Corridor of Fame jockey Mike Smith in his second begin. He responded when requested to speed up, switched leads on cue on the prime of the stretch, and had loads of gasoline in reserve to place away odds-on favourite Buetane within the stretch. He earned a 106 Equibase Velocity Determine, 96 Beyer Velocity Determine and a 9 (decrease is healthier) on the Ragozin Sheets for the San Vicente. So Comfortable’s dam (mom), So Crafty, is by 2010 Breeders’ Cup Basic winner Blame and received a pair of sprints impressively earlier than an unplaced end at one mile in her last race. So Comfortable’s grandam (maternal grandmother), So Glitzy, received three begins at distances from a mile to 1 1/8 miles and was Grade 3-placed at 1 1/8 miles. So Comfortable is perhaps as much as the gap problem.
3. Practically
Practically adopted a runaway 9 ¼-length maiden win for Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher by imposing his will by 5 lengths on three opponents Jan. 2 at Gulfstream Park in a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming race. It’s truthful to marvel who he beat in that brief area and he’s but to compete in something apart from dash races, however the Not This Time colt seems to be enhancing with every begin and earned a 95 Equibase Velocity Determine, 96 Beyer Velocity Determine and seven ½ on the Ragozin Sheet for his most up-to-date win, so the numbers again up the attention check. His dam (mom) Ib Prospecting, by 2003 Horse of the Yr Mineshaft, was a sprinter however Practically is by an excellent sire from a household with some class and stamina whenever you dig just a little deeper.
Additionally eligible: Chief Wallabee was the final man out right here, working neck and neck with Practically for the third and last slot. Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott’s Structure colt received his profession debut by 1 ½ lengths at seven-eighths of a mile Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park and the pace figures had been robust: 98 Equibase, 88 Beyer, 8 ½ Ragozin. He’s one to observe. … Brad Cox-trained stakes winners Commandment (Mucho Macho Man Stakes, Jan. 3 at Gulfstream) and My World (Jerome Stakes, Jan. 3 at Aqueduct) warranted robust consideration for a spot within the prime three however pace figures for each got here again a bit mild. … Likewise, I really like Lecomte Stakes winner Golden Tempo’s pedigree and he overcame a pace bias in rallying to win by three-quarters of a size Jan. 17 at Truthful Grounds, however it simply wasn’t a quick race. … It’s additionally value mentioning coach Todd Pletcher’s Jackson Gap, a $1.3 million buy as a yearling, improved to 2-for-2 with a front-running 5 ½-length rating at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 17 at Truthful Grounds.
COOLING DOWN
1. Universe
Universe completed third within the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and second within the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes as a 2-year-old and entered 2026 with cause for optimism. In his first begin of the yr within the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the World Marketing campaign colt didn’t meet expectations with a nonthreatening seventh-place end, crushed by 11 ¼ lengths by winner Strategic Danger. The 74 Equibase Velocity Determine Universe earned within the Smarty Jones was the worst of his five-race profession so far. He’ll want an improved effort in his subsequent begin for coach Kenny McPeek.
A two-time stakes winner at age 2, Crown the Buckeye was third and crushed by solely three-quarters of a size within the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 20 at Truthful Grounds in his last begin of 2025. He closed his juvenile marketing campaign with two wins, one second, and a 3rd in 4 races. The Ohio-bred’s first strive in a graded stakes proved too difficult a check. He pressed the tempo however light late when working eighth, crushed by 8 ½ lengths by Golden Tempo on a monitor that was favoring pace, within the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 17 at Truthful Grounds. He’s a gifted racehorse who may need been just a little outclassed on the graded-stakes degree.
3. Chip Honcho
Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho was unable to capitalize on a reasonably straightforward tempo within the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 17 at Truthful Grounds, the place he pressed the tempo from the skin earlier than launching his bid close to the highest of the stretch. Jockey Paco Lopez appeared assured, trying underneath his arm to examine for competitors, however he couldn’t get previous decided pacesetter Carson Avenue and finally additionally gave method to deep closers Mesquite (the runner-up) and winner Golden Tempo. Operating fourth, crushed by 1 ¾ lengths, was removed from a disastrous outing however he was unable to overhaul Carson Avenue within the stretch in a race the place the highest finishers weren’t precisely blazing via the stretch. Maybe this might be a race he can study from …
Of notice: Epic Summer season flashed capability in a formidable profession debut Oct. 26 at Belmont on the Massive A, pulling clear by 3 ¼ lengths after setting a pressured tempo. His first foray in opposition to stakes competitors indicated that he would possibly want extra expertise. Epic Summer season took a short lead approaching the stretch earlier than tiring and fading to fifth, crushed by 13 ¾ lengths, within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park.
