Filth sprints are the bread and butter of U.S. Thoroughbred racing and the $2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Dash is the crowning jewel of the division with the winner taking house the Eclipse Award as champion sprinter in 10 of the final 11 years and 13 of the final 15 seasons.
This yr’s six-furlong race Nov. 1 at Del Mar drew the top-three finishers from final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash (additionally at Del Mar) – Straight No Chaser, Bentornato, and Mullikin – amongst a deep, gifted group of 17 sprinters pre-entered.
As all the time, the Breeders’ Cup Dash presents bettors with a difficult handicapping puzzle, so let’s discover the final 25 editions of the race from 2000 by means of 2024 for some key information which may assist decide this yr’s winner.
Current Type
In wanting by means of the info of the final 25 winners, the obvious key pattern is a powerful final race. Sixteen of the final 25 winners exited a victory and 22 of the 25 have been first or second of their ultimate Breeders’ Cup prep race. Solely 2008 winner Midnight Lute and 2020 winner Whitmore got here into the race off of unplaced finishes. The previous received the Dash the earlier yr and returned from 9 months off with a uninteresting effort, but it surely sharpened him up for a repeat win. Whitmore was fourth in his ultimate prep earlier than his victory within the 2020 Dash, however he was working within the Dash for the fourth straight yr after ending second in 2018 and third in 2019.
Repeat Bids
Straight No Chaser shall be looking for a repeat win within the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dash after rallying from third to win by a half-length a yr in the past. There have been 11 horses who sought a repeat win within the Dash since 2000. Midnight Lute received in 2008, Roy H repeated in 2018, and Elite Energy went back-to-back in 2022-’23. Secret Circle ran second to Work All Week in 2014 after successful in 2013. The opposite seven have been unplaced the yr after their Dash win.
The Spa and Santa Anita
Fourteen of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup winners got here out of a prep race at both Santa Anita Park (8) or Saratoga Race Course (6). Add in three at Belmont Park and one at Aqueduct, and 40% of the winners over this time interval got here out of New York preps.
Sophomore Sprinters
Since 2000, six 3-year-olds proved as much as the duty of defeating older horses within the Breeders’ Cup Dash, but it surely hasn’t occurred since Runhappy (2015) and Drefong (2016) received back-to-back editions. Earlier than that, the 3-year-old winners all have been longshots: Squirtle Squirt ($21.20 for a $2 win guess in 2001), Cajun Beat ($47.60, 2003), Silver Prepare ($25.80, 2005), and Trinniberg ($29.40, 2012). 4 of the six entered the race off of wins whereas Squirtle Squirt and Trinniberg completed second by a half-length.
Gotta Determine
The common successful Equibase Pace Determine over the past quarter-century for the Breeders’ Cup Dash has been 117.5 with a median of 118. The successful determine has ranged from 108 to 128 with 23 of the 25 coming in at 111 or larger. When on the lookout for a winner, deal with sprinters who constantly run in that vary or, on the very least, personal a profession greatest in that vary. Likewise, 20 of the final 25 winners entered the race with a win on the Grade 2 stage or higher.
Tactical Pace
Twelve of the final 25 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Dash have been pacesetters or press the tempo varieties, so having tactical pace has proved a significant benefit within the race. The one true deep nearer to win the Dash since 2000 was Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008.
The Battle for Place
Tactical pace is a useful asset within the Breeders’ Cup Dash, but it surely’s removed from a assure that it’ll result in a visit on or close to the entrance. In actual fact, solely two of the final 25 winners led after the opening quarter-mile and solely 5 have been in entrance with a quarter-mile left within the race. There are sometimes so many quick horses within the race that tactical pace merely retains the winner inside putting vary of a quick tempo. Fifteen of the 25 winners have been within the high three after a half-mile and 7 have been fifth or worse, however solely Midnight Lute in 2007 was greater than 4 ½ lengths again at that time within the race with a median of 1 ½ lengths again on the quarter-pole.
The place’s the Worth
There have been six favorites who received over the past 25 editions of the Dash and 11 winners have been lower than 4-1 odds, however the race has produced its share of upsets with 9 winners paying $20 or extra for a $2 win guess and 5 paying $30 or extra: Cajun Beat (22.80-1 odds in 2003), Thor’s Echo (15.60-1, 2006), Dancing in Silks (25.30-1, 2009), Work All Week (19.10-1, 2014), and Whitmore (18.40-1, 2020). Of the 9 $20 winners, 4 entered off a win, 4 have been second and overwhelmed by a size or much less, and Whitmore completed fourth earlier than making his fourth begin within the Dash.
On the Filth in California
Twelve of the final 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup have been held in Southern California, however for this train let’s get rid of those on an all-weather floor in 2008 and 2009 and deal with these held on a mud predominant monitor, like this yr’s version.
Favorites have received solely two of the ten editions on filth in Southern California with 4 double-digit longshot winners. Seven of the ten entered the Dash popping out of a win and none was worse than second of their ultimate prep race. Three of the ten have been 3-year-olds.
Solely one of many 10 winners led after the primary half-mile, however 9 of the ten have been inside 3 ½ lengths of the chief and 7 of the ten entered the race having proven the flexibility to press or set the tempo. 5 have been in entrance in early stretch and 9 of the ten have been within the high three, so tactical pace has been advantageous.
A Specialist Race
I really like the cutback in distance method for betting dash races as a basic handicapping precept, however that has not been an efficient technique within the Breeders’ Cup Dash. The median distance raced of Breeders’ Cup Dash winners – in the course of the yr of the win earlier than the World Championships – over the past 25 editions has been 6.5 furlongs and 23 of the winners averaged seven furlongs or much less. It’s much more of a sprinter’s race on the filth in Southern California with a median distance raced by the ten winners of 6.37 furlongs and a median of 6.4 furlongs main as much as the Breeders’ Cup.
Evaluating the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dash Solid
It is sensible to begin with defending winner Straight No Chaser. The Dash is a race the place repeat victories are attainable – we’ve had three repeat winners since 2008 – however it’s a formidable problem with eight different horses failing within the quest over the past quarter-century. Straight No Chaser enters off a third-place end within the Grade 2 Santa Anita Dash Championship Stakes Introduced by Estrella Jalisco in his first begin after a 5 ½-month layoff, so he might need wanted the race. The third-place end is a mark in opposition to, however Straight No Chaser is completely a six-furlong specialist, popping out of a Santa Anita prep race with considerable tactical pace, and he proved a yr in the past he’s quick sufficient to win.
Likewise, final yr’s runner-up Bentornato appears to be like like a high win candidate. He returned from greater than 10 months off with a 5 ½-length romp within the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes Sept. 13 at Churchill Downs. He earned a career-top 117 Equibase Pace Determine for that win from simply off the tempo, so he’s in high type, boasts nice tactical pace, and proved as much as the category problem when second by a half-length within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dash. He can be the primary Dash winner this century to return out of a prep race at Churchill Downs, however he’s a win candidate.
The highest-two finishers from the Santa Anita Dash Championship, winner Creativeness and runner-up Dr. Venkman, will rematch with Straight No Chaser within the Breeders’ Cup Dash. Creativeness had been working in longer-distance races and in the reduction of to 6 furlongs to halt a seven-race winless stretch for Corridor of Fame coach and five-time Breeders’ Cup Dash winner Bob Baffert. Likewise, Dr. Venkman has been higher at barely longer distances. Neither profile as a typical dash specialist however each are quick sufficient to issue.
Lovesick Blues has made 5 of his six begins this yr on turf, however his one filth race was a 1 ¾-length rating within the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at six furlongs at Del Mar. He’s a tried-and-true sprinter, however not essentially a filth sprinter, and he’s extra of an off-the-pace runner, which might hinder his probabilities. That mentioned, if the tempo is very quick on this yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash, Lovesick Blues may very well be the beneficiary on a monitor he likes.
Final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash third-place finisher Mullikin is winless in 4 begins this yr and enters off a well-beaten seventh place end in a Grade 1 race in August at Saratoga. He was significantly better a yr in the past. Banishing made his final two begins at 1 1/8 miles, together with a win within the Charles City Basic Stakes, however it is a powerful spot to chop again in distance by three furlongs and he exits a third-place end. Mad Home is a devoted front-runner delivery in from Parx Racing who will face a stiff class check popping out of a facile 2 ¾-length win in his graded stakes debut. A 3-year-old, Mad Home has by no means received from off the tempo and he’ll face vital strain up entrance Nov. 1 at Del Mar, however he might maintain on for a minor awar at a giant value. Massive Metropolis Lights is a really quick sprinter for Corridor of Fame coach Richard Mandella, however he makes his first begin since Jan. 18 within the Breeders’ Cup Dash and he’s by no means received above the Grade 3 stage. I don’t assume Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner Nakatomi or Vosburgh Stakes winner Patriot Spirit are quick sufficient to win in opposition to this group.
Japan-based American Stage and Puro Magic provide some intrigue, however the former has by no means received a gaggle stakes race and the latter has first choice within the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash and is winless in a single begin on the principle monitor.
Females Tamara and Kopion have been among the many pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup Dash, however each are listed as having first choice within the PNC Financial institution Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Dash. Ought to they aim the Breeders’ Cup Dash and face males, they’d be making an attempt to hitch Very Refined (1987), Safely Saved (1990), and Desert Stormer (1995) as feminine winners of this race. The inception of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Dash in 2007 has led to fewer feminine entrants within the Breeders’ Cup Dash. Kopion completed second most just lately in a Grade 2 race at 1 1/16 miles whereas Tamara received a 6 ½-furlong dash in her return from greater than 10 months off. I favor each within the Filly & Mare Dash.
