OPINION – The unearthing of IRGC’s involvement in Australia’s firebombing incidents in 2025 has subsequently introduced into query – the extent by which abroad terrorist teams and Australian home organized crime are in sinister collaboration. Though the firebombings occurred in 2025, the facilitation of terrorist financing by the efforts of prison proceeds have lengthy been understood. With illicit tobacco being a staple and extremely profitable commodity within the Australian prison underworld, spurred by the nation’s costly excise tax, its profound position in terrorist financing is a urgent concern for Australia to additional examine, particularly in mild of the IRGC discovery.
From late 2024, Australia skilled a sequence of arson assaults towards Jewish-affiliated enterprises, of which two have been linked to the IRGC by the Australian Safety Intelligence Group (ASIO) in August 2025. The first incident concerned a firebomb assault on the Lewis Continental Kitchen in Sydney in October 2024 coordinated by Sayed Mohammad Moosawi, a former chief of the Nomads bike gang. The second incident concerned a firebomb assault on Adass Israel Synagogue in December 2024, which resulted in over $20 million in damages.
In response, ASIO head Mike Burgess pinned the assaults on the IRGC, testifying that the group utilized proxies to operationalize these assaults. Beforehand, the IRGC has been listed as a terrorist entity by different Western states, particularly Canada and the US. Whereas the assaults didn’t finally lead to terrorism fees in Australia, the IRGC’s involvement would make clear the looming crime-terror nexus, the symbiotic relationship between terrorism and arranged crime that’s festering within the nation. Understanding this interaction of crime and terror is essential for counterterrorism efforts in Australia to proactively deter the long run risk of terrorism on their soil.
Lately, the illicit tobacco market has been a rampant concern in Australia, with an financial system of roughly $10 billion yearly. The market is propagated by the nation’s costly excise tax on tobacco which compels customers to show to unlawful avenues to obtain the commodity, finally driving the profitable underground market even additional. At A$1.49 per 0.8 gram stick, elevated in September 2025 or A$40, or US$26 for a pack of 20 cigarettes, the costs of tobacco is exorbitant in comparison with different Western international locations similar to Canada at an excise responsibility fee of CAD$0.19 per stick and an “common” pack costing between CAD$15.36 to $19.75 as of April 2025. Along with an estimated lack of $7 billion in excise income, this illicit market is thought to facilitate terrorist financing operations, being listed as a considerable financier to offshore terrorist teams by the Australia Prison Intelligence Fee (ACIC). In relation to the firebombing assaults, the found crime-terror ties is a warning for Australian stakeholders to deal with the nation’s excise tax coverage which might, in flip, strategically cripple terrorist financing.
Additional linkage between illicit tobacco and terrorist financing has been found by Australian authorities. Previous to the 2 firebomb assaults between 2024 and 2025, Australia had already been experiencing a protracted string of firebomb assaults, linked to illicit tobacco kingpin, Kazem “Kaz” Hamad. Hamad, who was deported from Australia to Iraq in 2023, was believed to be concerned with 150 arson assaults concentrating on tobacco retailers throughout Melbourne. Notably, he was linked to the arson assault on the Lux nightclub in November 2024 the place perpetrators of the incident drove a blue Volkswagen Golf. Based on a joint report by the Australia Federal Police (AFP), the ASIO, and the Victoria Police, the identical car was allegedly used within the Adass Israel synagogue firebombing and a taking pictures in Bundoora, each of which occurred on the identical night time. Given this linkage, the IRGC could also be a key benefactor to the Hamad’s prosperous illicit tobacco commerce whereas members of his prison community will commit violence to appease this abroad consumer of theirs. By leveraging these networks, the IRGC can make use of an outsourcing strategy to inflict injury on adversaries whereas sustaining a guise of believable deniability.
The IRGC’s methodology, which is a type of hybrid, or asymmetrical, warfare, is a staple within the group’s playbook which has been noticed earlier than in its plan to assault targets in Sri Lanka and the US in 2024. The IRGC utilized drug trafficker Farhad Shakeri, who held a powerful community of organized criminals in each Sri Lanka and the U.S. Shakeri deliberate to make use of his prison contacts to bomb the Israel consulate in Colombo and Arugam Bay, assassinate Israeli vacationers in each places, and in addition assassinate President Donald Trump in the ussimultaneously through the first anniversary of Hamas’ 7 October 2023 assault on Israel. Nonetheless, his plans have been later thwarted by legislation enforcement and intelligence communities of each Sri Lanka and the U.S.
Following the invention of the IRGC involvement, the Albanese authorities eliminated the Iranian ambassador from the nation together with the suspension of its embassy in August 2025 whereas lastly itemizing the IRGC as a terrorist entity. Operationally, this new designation might bolster the 5 Eyes’ info sharing with Australia whereas granting the nation a authorized framework to pursue terrorism fees towards IRGC-affiliated exercise. Moreover, Australia has ramped up its legislation enforcement efforts to dismantle the illicit tobacco market. New units of legal guidelines have been carried out in 2025 by Queensland and New South Wales to deal with illicit tobacco operations together with drug busts similar to in Operation Xray Modred which led to the seizure of roughly $53.8 million value of tobacco throughout 17 completely different storage amenities. The operation is considered one of many largest busts in Queensland historical past. General, Australia’s stringent measures and due diligence in crippling the illicit tobacco market demonstrates its sturdy dedication to cut back criminality and terrorism alike.
Nonetheless, whereas enforcement efforts are efficient, it’s paramount for Australia to contemplate coverage modifications to tobacco excise to not solely cut back person dependence on unlawful sources however cull home terrorist financing operations. One coverage possibility that has been mentioned by the nation’s largest tobacco wholesalers was to briefly freeze the rise in tobacco costs. Doing so would create a window for presidency and legislation enforcement to deliberate on viable options whereas stopping the scenario from worsening. Discount of excise might result in problems similar to a possible drop in fiscal funds. Nonetheless, given the large lack of income as a result of black market as mentioned, conversion of illegitimate customers to reliable customers on account of improved coverage might create fiscal alternatives for the Australian authorities as an alternative.
Furthermore, stopping tobacco use might contribute to the discount of the illicit market which doesn’t require touching excise tax. Via a whole-of-society strategy similar to anti-tobacco schooling or promotion of wholesome existence, Australia might decrease the demand for illegitimate procurement of the product, thus inadvertently mitigating the terrorist financing downside.
Conclusion
The IRGC’s asymmetrical operations within the Australian firebombing incidents emphasize the ever-present want for counterterrorism and nationwide safety stakeholders to make use of criminological views to unravel the crime-terror nexus. It have to be understood that terrorism doesn’t start with an assault, however somewhat a longtime logistical and monetary basis earlier than that. Given organized crime teams’ huge entry to profitable contraband similar to illicit tobacco within the case of Australia, terrorist organizations will make the most of them for financing alternatives. Given this, proscribing distribution of illicit markets will lead to appreciable mileage in counterterrorism efforts. As crime and terror develop into a conjoined risk, legislation enforcement and nationwide safety efforts have to be simply as, if no more, collectivized to counteract them. Australia should not solely depend on home enforcement efforts and overseas coverage choices to cripple the potential of nefarious actors, but additionally curb the demand for the rampant illicit tobacco market by altering to its excise tax insurance policies and discouraging product utilization. By carrying out this, the nation can stay optimistic because it positions itself to strategically battle towards each crime and terrorism.
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