As officers in Ottawa have been making ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s maiden go to to India, Canadian police have been knocking on a Sikh activist’s door in Surrey, Vancouver, on Sunday to tell him that his life was in danger.
Moninder Singh, who heads the Sikh Federation of Canada, had beforehand already acquired three such warnings from the Vancouver police. However this time, citing a confidential informant, police advised Singh that his spouse and two youngsters have been in danger, too.
“I used to be advised to verify it’s prolonged to you, your spouse and your two youngsters,” the police officer advised Singh in a dialog recorded on his dwelling’s doorbell digital camera.
Singh was an affiliate of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist and Canadian citizen who was assassinated in Canada in June 2023. The killing precipitated a large diplomatic row. Canada accused Indian authorities brokers of involvement in Nijjar’s killing, and framed it as a part of an Indian coverage of transnational repression focusing on Sikh activists overseas.
However, whereas Singh was knowledgeable of the risk to him and his household on Sunday, a senior Canadian authorities official advised reporters in an off-the-record briefing on Wednesday that “India is not a risk” to safety, two days earlier than Carney was as a consequence of land in New Delhi.
This marks a major shift in Canada’s tone and strategy to India beneath Carney, who’s seeking to diversify international relations to cushion the impression from United States President Donald Trump’s commerce conflict, analysts say.
Observers say Carney’s go to to New Delhi this week might mark the beginning of a reset of the bilateral relationship, which hit new lows lately beneath Canada’s former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The rupture in ties
The temper in Ottawa had already modified an excellent deal since Carney succeeded Trudeau to guide the federal government in March final yr.
Underneath Trudeau, relations between Canada and India had deteriorated to tit-for-tat accusations and the expulsion of diplomats, significantly because the killing of Nijjar in June 2023.
Nijjar was a outstanding advocate for a Sikh homeland within the type of an impartial Khalistani state in India. New Delhi calls this separatism and views Nijjar and others within the motion as “terrorists”.
Following Nijjar’s killing, stress mounted on Trudeau from the influential Sikh diaspora in Canada, demanding accountability. In October 2024, throughout an inquiry into international interference, Trudeau mentioned there have been “ever clearer indications” that India had violated Canada’s sovereignty by focusing on Sikh activists on Canadian soil.
India’s “actions”, Trudeau mentioned, have been a “horrific mistake”.
Canada additionally accused India of interfering in its home politics, together with by offering funds to politicians whom New Delhi most popular. India firmly rejected the allegations, calling them “preposterous”, and urged Canada to take motion towards anti-Indian components working from its soil – an obvious reference to Sikh activists.
However Nijjar’s killing opened a can of worms for the Indian institution. In November 2023, the US Division of Justice charged an Indian nationwide with allegedly plotting to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American lawyer and in addition a Sikh activist.
Nikhil Gupta, 54, accused of plotting to kill Pannun, pleaded responsible to a few felony prices in a federal court docket in New York Metropolis earlier this month. He faces as much as 40 years in jail for admitting to murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and conspiracy to commit cash laundering.
Sikh activists in the UK have been additionally reportedly warned of a risk from the Indian authorities.
Trudeau’s strategy to the problem, in some sense, had change into emblematic of the issue in bilateral ties, mentioned Harsh Pant, a international coverage analyst in New Delhi.
His confrontational strategy “meant that points that would have been handled on the bureaucratic degree have been elevated to the strategic degree”, and it grew to become troublesome to disentangle the 2, he added.
Thaw in icy relations
When Carney was elected new chief of the ruling Liberal Occasion in 2025, he changed Justin Trudeau amid historic tensions with the US and fears of a commerce conflict with the Trump administration. Carney took the stage, actively searching for new companions to mitigate this risk.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi leapt to congratulate him and instantly known as on him “to strengthen our partnership and unlock higher alternatives for our individuals”.
Quickly, Carney had invited Modi to Canada for the G7 summit in June final yr, the place each leaders met on the sidelines. New envoys in each international locations adopted. Out of the blue, every part had modified within the relationship, mentioned Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based analyst on South Asia.
“There’s simply extra optimism and momentum for the connection,” Kugelman advised Al Jazeera. Underneath Carney, the Canadian authorities “recognises that this relationship is simply too essential to let it flounder”.
The industrial incentives for Canada to get the connection again on observe are big. “And that every one begins with altering the tone and the temper,” Kugelman mentioned. Therefore, this week’s feedback by Canadian officers that “India is not a risk”.
Vina Nadjibulla, vice chairman on the Asia Pacific Basis of Canada, advised Al Jazeera that Ottawa has moved from a public, crisis-driven posture to a extra deliberate, step-by-step “reset”.
Underneath Carney, “the emphasis is on rebuilding structured channels so safety considerations – together with transnational repression and interference – may be dealt with via sustained regulation enforcement and nationwide safety cooperation moderately than megaphone diplomacy,” she argued.
“Ottawa is attempting to do each directly: defend the rule of regulation at dwelling whereas advancing areas of mutual curiosity overseas.”
However Carney’s change in strategy doesn’t imply the issue of threats towards Sikh activists has vanished.
“Canadian officers positively nonetheless fear concerning the transnational repression situation, and significantly as authorized proceedings proceed,” mentioned Kugelman.
The present Canadian authorities is merely taking a special strategy, he recommended: “a extra ‘accommodationist’ strategy – one which focuses on basically working via this situation with India”.
Not like the Canadian officers of their off-the-record briefing, International Minister Anita Anand evaded a direct query from reporters when quizzed about whether or not India is not thought of a risk. As an alternative, she mentioned, discussions on the problems of transnational violence are ongoing on the highest ranges of each governments.
New Delhi may also need to tackle the challenges of “Khalistani extremism”, which shall be a problem for Carney, mentioned Pant, who’s vice chairman of the Observer Analysis Basis, a New Delhi-based suppose tank.
The way in which ahead
On Friday, Carney started his two-day go to to New Delhi, the place the 2 prime ministers are holding talks at Hyderabad Home and can overview the India-Canada Strategic Partnership.
The Canadian PM can also be anticipated to lock in offers on commerce and funding, together with on vitality, vital minerals, agriculture, schooling, analysis and people-to-people ties.
Collaboration in these sectors will outline the trajectory of this relationship going ahead, mentioned Pant.
Finally, the important thing exterior issue driving Carney’s go to to New Delhi is Trump’s commerce conflict, mentioned Kugelman. Each Canada and India have seen their relations with the US, a prime commerce associate, slide since Trump returned to the White Home in January final yr.
Whereas India has considerably stabilised its relations with the US this yr since commerce negotiations reached the ultimate levels, Ottawa and Washington stay at odds over their worldviews and worldwide commerce.
“[Carney’s approach] is a part of a broader international pattern that we’re seeing, international locations which have labored with the US for a very long time are actually seeking to strengthen ties with different companions,” mentioned Kugelman. “From the angle of Ottawa and New Delhi, it’s actually a no brainer that this relationship not solely has to get again on observe, but it surely additionally must be put able the place it might probably develop much more.”
Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Basis of Canada added that India is vital to Canada’s efforts to scale back over-reliance on the US and to diversify its financial and strategic partnerships.
However unresolved points, like those of transnational violence, undermine the sturdiness of now-blooming bilateral ties, she added.
“If unresolved safety allegations sit within the background with out credible processes and enforcement cooperation, normalisation turns into politically brittle,” Nadjibulla advised Al Jazeera. “Susceptible to the following incident, leak, or court docket growth.”
