Final month, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill notched blockbuster victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Spanberger trounced her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by a 15-point margin, whereas Sherrill defeated businessman Jack Ciattarrelli by 13-points.
The Virginia and New Jersey campaigns relied on related ways: A core message on affordability; an emphasis on the nationwide safety backgrounds of each candidates; and a willingness to face up towards Trump. One of many chief strategists who devised this strategy is pollster Angela Kuefler, a accomplice at World Technique Group who labored with each candidates. Kuefler additionally delivered to each races her perspective because the uncommon feminine pollster in a male-dominated discipline.
This transcript has been edited for size and readability. The total interview is offered at Spotify, YouTube and iTunes.
Anne Kim: Congratulations! Most polls didn’t point out such massive margins in these races. Did these wins outperform your individual expectations as effectively, or did you may have an inkling that this was going to occur?
Angela Kuefler: It was at all times a risk. One of many issues that’s true for off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey is that they grow to be a referendum on the president who’s simply been elected. When you look again to the final time Trump was elected, there have been wholesome wins by Democrats up and down the ticket in each states. So we at all times knew it was a risk. I function from the place of “let’s anticipate the worst and hope for the very best,” however in our numerous turnout situations, we did see the possibility of it hitting this excessive, particularly in New Jersey.
Matthew Cooper: I’m from New Jersey, so I’ve seen my share of politicians rise and fall there, going again to the likes of Jim Florio earlier than Chris Christie. Each Spanberger and Sherrill talked about affordability, and it was clearly on the minds of voters. However did voters suppose that was one thing governors may do a lot about? In different phrases, who’re voters blaming for top costs? Or do they see it as an act of God?
Angela Kuefler: They see it as an act of a whole lot of politicians from the previous not doing their jobs proper. They see it to some extent as one thing that’s exterior any political management.
However what was totally different with these two ladies is the energy of who they’re and their previous lives and bios as mothers, as individuals with a nationwide safety background, and as people who put mission and repair above every part else. These weren’t simply speaking factors. These have been crucial elements of their story, of their model, of their message.
And the explanation it mattered is that it allowed voters to imagine that they may do one thing about prices and the economic system as a result of they weren’t conventional tax-and-spend Democrats. These have been Democrats who weren’t seen as excessive due to their bios and background. These have been Democrats who have been totally different from most politicians, or a minimum of how most individuals understand most politicians, and that allowed individuals to listen to them and imagine them after they stated, “I’m going to do X, I’m going to do Y, that can assist you and your loved ones management the price of dwelling.”
Matthew Cooper: There was a time when gun security was an enormous concern in states like New Jersey. In fact, after the Dobbs choice, there was purpose to suppose alternative would dominate just about each state race in years to come back. However these points don’t appear to have actually been on the radar of voters that a lot. Are we now in a spot the place in some states, alternative and weapons are settled sufficient that it doesn’t matter that a lot, or are they nonetheless salient points?
Angela Kuefler: Abortion and weapons nonetheless matter to individuals, and abortion was part of each of those campaigns. I believe the distinction is how we utilized it strategically to attract a distinction with their opponents.
You might not get two totally different Republicans than Jack Ciattarrelli and Winsome Earle- Sears. However the work we did to disqualify them was comparatively related, first by disqualifying them on among the financial model benefits that Republicans traditionally have had on price and affordability by making clear that they’ve raised individuals’s prices. After which the opposite part was to make it clear that they have been going to be so aligned with Trump that they might not do what was proper to guard the individuals of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the state of New Jersey.
After which lastly, there was a layer of extremism, of which abortion was the principle proof level. Not solely are you able to not belief both of those Republicans to do what was proper as a result of they’re so aligned with MAGA and Trump, they’re so excessive they need to ban abortion. It’s that mixture that did a whole lot of work to disqualify each of those Republican opponents.
Anne Kim: I need to ask particularly about Virginia. Abigail Spanberger outperformed each Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in Virginia, and regardless that a few of these corners of southwest Virginia stayed pink, the losses have been undoubtedly not as extreme as they’d been up to now. And in Chesapeake, she did extraordinarily effectively in her dwelling territory. Do we all know at this level who’s making the shift again into the blue column and the way sturdy these shifts are going to be?
Angela Kuefler: We don’t actually know till the voter information are up to date who really confirmed as much as this election. There’s at all times some estimation primarily based on precincts, however the actuality is we don’t understand how a lot of it was totally different individuals displaying up and the way a lot of it was persuasion.
I are likely to suppose it was a mix of each these issues, on condition that turnout—whereas it’s going to by no means match a presidential yr—was nonetheless greater. Each Abigail and Mikie have additionally had a number of races the place they’ve performed actually nice work in profitable over extra conventional right-leaning swing voters in many various communities.
And that’s a part of their superpower. Having a nationwide safety background simply vibes to people as not being excessive on one finish or the opposite. It feels average. It seems like any person that they suppose can belief.
There are definitely classes that we must always all be taking from these victories in candidate recruitment, messaging, and all of that. However I don’t suppose all Democratic issues are solved by one actually good night time with electorates that don’t appear to be the midterm or the presidential.
Matthew Cooper: Going again to New Jersey, all eyes have been on Passaic County with its huge Hispanic, Arab-American and Muslim populations after its dramatic swing to Trump in 2024. It moved again in a Democratic path this time. Are you able to supply some perception about what occurred there and amongst these communities?
Angela Kuefler: It’s most likely a mix of some issues. One, we performed for them exhausting. We have been on Spanish TV. We did Latino-focused mail. We very a lot focused that group. However they’re not a monolith, clearly. There are various factors that they’re persuaded by or not.
By way of messaging, a few of it constructed on the overreach of what Trump is doing—the mass deportations. That definitely performed a task. The larger position although, once more, was the message on price and affordability. This can be a inhabitants that’s notably attuned to price.
Anne Kim: What do you suppose have been the largest errors that the GOP opponents made in each races? I reside in Virginia and was inundated by adverts from Winsome Earle-Sears that struck me as a little bit bit tone deaf, however what are the opposite methods you suppose wherein each candidates could have misfired of their message to voters and of their complete strategy?
Angela Kuefler: My job is to do the analysis to assist inform marketing campaign technique. It’s a a lot greater crew, clearly, however the best way it really works is that you just do the analysis, and also you give you the perfect message narrative. You at all times plan for shifts your opponent may make, and I prefer to assume my opponent is smarter than us and goes to do the sensible factor.
In order a part of that planning, I and I believe others on each these campaigns have been fairly positive every of those candidates would attempt to distance themselves from the president, attempt to make themselves appear extra average, attempt to push again.
The overwhelming majority of swing voters have by no means needed a politician who was simply going to be a celebration line vote. That could be a longstanding perception. So no matter who the president is, they nonetheless ought to have been attempting to advertise some separation.
However they by no means even tried, and I frankly couldn’t imagine it. It was a present. I don’t understand how they weren’t advising their candidate to push again towards a president who is totally underwater in every of those states. The logic didn’t make sense. The very best I may determine is that perhaps they acknowledged that turnout was the one of many key levers right here and so they may provoke the Trump base and create a special voters. However that’s dangerous, and that has traditionally not occurred when Trump isn’t on the ticket himself.
A part of it may very well be they didn’t need to upset daddy. Possibly they each knew they have been going to lose and needed to protect that relationship.
Anne Kim: I need to ask a query in regards to the enterprise of polling earlier than we carry it again to your recommendation for candidates in 2026. As I perceive it, your shopper roster is fairly solely feminine. You will have led unbiased expenditure polling for Kansas Governor Laura Kelly, for example, and also you’ve labored for Georgia politicians Stacey Abrams and Lucy McBath.
Polling can be very a lot a male-dominated occupation. What do you carry as a feminine pollster to the candidates you’re employed with? And on condition that polling as a occupation has been crushed up over the previous few cycles, how does your perspective enhance polling as a occupation or represents views that haven’t been represented as totally up to now?
Angela Kuefler: I don’t suppose I’m offering something totally different or higher from the literal steps of polling methodology. I do suppose the place it makes a distinction is within the crew surroundings. It’s not simply polling that’s male-dominated, it’s your complete political guide trade.
So it helps to typically have a special voice. I believe that how I and different ladies take into consideration branding a candidate, or the narrative of a candidate, is a little bit bit totally different. It’s sturdy. It’s deeper. And I hadn’t even clocked that as a method that ladies see the world barely in a different way till any person flagged it for me comparatively just lately.
For instance, after I’m fascinated about how you can construct up a candidate model, I’ve a framework about how one connects to somebody emotionally, how one bonds with them primarily based on lived expertise, and the way one connects their motivation to run with what individuals imagine is pure—stuff that in my expertise builds a deeper candidate model. And that’s not how a whole lot of people give it some thought. They’re like, “We take a look at no matter polls rather well on coverage, and let’s name it a day.” There’s no disgrace in that. That has labored for a few years. Nevertheless it doesn’t at all times work, and it definitely doesn’t work in actually exhausting races the place you want to develop deeper connections with voters, particularly when you’re a Democrat working in a redder place.
I believe it’s necessary to have ladies’s views on these marketing campaign groups, that are predominantly males. And I get much more pleasure after I’m not the one girl on the crew, which does occur typically.
Anne Kim: I believe it’s simply so necessary as a result of ladies candidates on the presidential degree simply haven’t fared effectively. And it does appear that there must be one thing totally different that occurs so as to break that ultimate glass ceiling.
Angela Kuefler: I believe ladies, individuals of colour, and individuals who have been traditionally marginalized in any method see the place energy lies extra acutely. And so I believe we are likely to see our personal vulnerabilities a little bit bit extra too, which is typically the position I play in campaigns.
For instance, there are a whole lot of educational research on the market that say ladies candidates who go on TV and are perceived to be attacking first get extra blowback. When you don’t know that, and also you’re simply working with the playbook for how you can win a marketing campaign that was written for males by males, then you definitely’re pushing your candidate and never taking that nuance into consideration.
It’s the identical factor once you’re balancing when it is best to speak about being a mother versus when it is best to speak about being a Navy helicopter pilot or a CIA agent. Each of these issues says various things to totally different voters—each good issues—however it’s a steadiness.
Anne Kim: And on the danger of going off on a tangent right here, I do suppose that this consideration of what it means to be a lady candidate turns into much more fraught due to what’s occurring on the opposite facet of the aisle with conventional gender roles changing into a lot part of the dialog. Being that CIA analyst or being a veteran pushes towards this paradigm that they’re developing on the opposite facet. It’s going to be actually attention-grabbing to see what occurs over the following few cycles with feminine candidates and the way they model themselves.
Angela Kuefler: Yep. It pushes towards it in a method that’s useful, however as a result of they’re each mothers, it additionally doesn’t bust these conventional guidelines an excessive amount of to backfire. That mixture has confirmed to be actually highly effective, and I believe will proceed.
Matthew Cooper: When you’re assembly with somebody who is considering working in 2026, what are you going to inform them in regards to the private travails of working and in addition the panorama arising?
Angela Kuefler: The very first thing is to verify candidates are conscious how a lot work it’s going to be. I believe a whole lot of them intellectually get it, however after they’re locked in name time for a number of hours a day, after they’re on the highway continually, it wears.
Subsequent, I’m feeling fairly bullish about 2026 at this level—all the redistricting conversations apart, as a result of that clearly throws a wrench into a whole lot of various things.
But when we take into consideration 2026 as a replay of 2018, very similar to 2025 proved to be a comparatively related replay to 2017, we received huge, and we received districts that have been thought-about R+10 or as much as R+13. Meaning in comparison with the nationwide common within the final two elections, they voted Republican 10 factors greater than the nationwide common or as much as 13 factors greater than the nationwide common.
Final time, we moved a few of these actually, actually exhausting districts, and take into account that in 2018, Abigail Spanberger herself beat Dave Brat in an R+7 district. And he was not a hated man.
So I really feel fairly bullish that we’ll have the ability to swing a few of these tougher locations. After which it turns into: Are you a candidate who has an interesting profile and are you keen to do the work? If you’re each these issues, then you possibly can catch that wave and probably, very similar to Mikie and Abigail each did, in lower than a decade be governor.
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