This characteristic gives a capsule have a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose possibilities for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve are usually not as sturdy as they beforehand have been. Within the second version of this weblog for the 2026 run for the roses, the main focus is on what has modified because the earlier version on Jan. 21.
HEATING UP
My two favourite stakes winners on the Derby path over the past two weeks have been undoubtedly Silent Tactic within the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park and Renegade within the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs (extra on Renegade beneath). I gave Silent Tactic the highest spot as a result of he actually shocked me and the betting public at 12-1 odds with a large step ahead in his fourth profession begin and second attempt on grime. The bay colt by Tacitus ran effectively in his first two begins on the all-weather floor at Woodbine, profitable his debut and ending second within the Grade 3 bet365 Gray Stakes. He then completed a distant second, overwhelmed by 4 ½ lengths by stablemate Strategic Danger within the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3 at Oaklawn Park. He overcame an outdoor submit, a large journey, and a average tempo to shut from second-to-last within the 12-horse Southwest subject for a 3 ¼-length victory. He accomplished his remaining quarter-mile in :24.56 and his remaining furlong in :12.08, flashy ending occasions, to earn a brand new career-best 88 Beyer Velocity Determine and 103 Equibase Velocity Determine, the latter a 17-point enchancment whereas boosting his Beyer by seven factors. Out of a Gun Runner mare, Silent Tactic ought to have the ability to deal with further distance for Corridor of Fame coach Mark Casse.
2. Renegade
Of this group of heating up candidates, I imagine Renegade has the very best likelihood to win the Kentucky Derby and it was a troublesome name to fit him in second right here. Truth is, I held him in excessive regard coming into the 12 months based mostly on his two earlier races – a DQ loss to Paladin and a second to that rival within the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes – and his dominant win within the $210,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes was no shock because the 6-5 favourite within the nine-horse subject. Nonetheless, he did all the pieces proper in his 3-year-old debut and confirmed the kind of development you prefer to see in a Derby hopeful. He earned a brand new career-top 92 Beyer Velocity Determine and 100 Equibase Velocity Determine and left the opposition within the mud with a remaining quarter-mile in a scorching :24.30 for Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher. As I famous in this week’s Derby prospect profile, Renegade is bred to excel at 1 ¼ miles and appears like a severe risk to win the primary jewel of the Triple Crown.
3. Plutarch
After a third-place end within the American Pharoah Stakes Offered by DK Horse Oct. 5, 2025, Plutarch was shifted again to turf by Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert for his remaining two begins as a 2-year-old. He positioned in one other stakes race and received a maiden particular weight race, however in his 3-year-old debut Plutarch ran by far the very best race of his profession thus far again on the grime within the Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park. He pressed pacesetter Intrepido (the American Pharoah Stakes winner) from his outdoors flank alongside the backstretch, ratcheted up the strain coming into the far flip, and edged away from his recreation rival within the remaining sixteenth of a mile to win by three-quarters of a size. The bay colt by perennial main sire Into Mischief out of 2015 champion 3-year-old filly Stellar Wind, by Curlin, confirmed maturity early within the race whereas dueling between rivals and willpower late to place away a Grade 1 winner. He accomplished his remaining quarter-mile in :25.65 and earned a brand new career-top 90 Beyer Velocity Determine whereas stepping out of the shadow of a number of extra ballyhooed Baffert stablemates.
Additionally eligible: The opposite two massive U.S. stakes winners from the final two weeks have been Holy Bull Stakes winner Practically and Withers Stakes victor Discuss to Me Jimmy. Practically made my high three within the Jan. 21 version of Heating Up-Cooling Down off an allowance-optional claiming race victory and I profiled him final week after the Holy Bull. He’s a promising colt however I didn’t love how slowly he completed within the Holy Bull. Likewise, Discuss to Me Jimmy was a dominant 11-length, front-running winner within the Withers, however his remaining quarter-mile in :26.76 after a average tempo offers me pause when evaluating how he’ll deal with higher competitors. … Rising Market regarded like a colt with a really brilliant future in a debut win at one-mile and 40 yards, outbattling Powershift within the Tampa Bay Downs stretch on the Sam F. Davis undercard to earn a 96 Beyer Velocity Determine. … Two different maiden winners I’m including to my Equibase Digital Secure after final weekend are Prime Stage and Easterly. Prime Stage debuted on the grass round two turns for Mark Casse and confirmed little, however slicing again to three-quarters of a mile on the grime Feb. 6 at Oaklawn unlocked one thing. He delivered an expert effort, recognized a goal within the stretch, and sprinted clear by 2 ¾ lengths. The truth that Casse began him out in a two-turn race offers me hope he may be greater than a sprinter. Easterly led in deep stretch of his debut at a mile earlier than fading to second, however he dominated by 2 ¾ lengths Feb. 7 at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16 miles for coach Brad Cox. Easterly might want to run sooner to compete on the stakes stage however he seems like he has some means. … Six Velocity has received three straight in Dubai, together with a five-length win within the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas Offered by Longines. I’m a fan of the Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt, however I’m skeptical of the standard of competitors he’s been beating in Dubai for coach Bhupat Seemar, who additionally not too long ago unveiled flashy debut winner Salloom, by Genuine.
COOLING DOWN
Whereas Silent Tactic was a nice shock for proprietor John Oxley and coach Mark Casse within the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park, Strategic Danger exited the race on the different finish of the spectrum with the identical owner-trainer tandem questioning what went improper in his 10th-place end. The Noble Fowl colt had received the FTBOA Florida Sire In Actuality Stakes and $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, the latter on the identical monitor and 1 1/16-mile distance at Oaklawn, coming into the Southwest however light to complete 10 ½ lengths behind Silent Tactic. Casse guessed that maybe the inclement climate and interrupted coaching routine may need impacted Strategic Danger’s efficiency. “I actually don’t know what occurred with him,” Casse mentioned. “In the event you’re watching, he seems like he’s struggling. Possibly that little day without work possibly bothered him greater than the others. I’m going to run again within the Insurgent [Stakes March 1] so long as he’s wonderful.”
2. Incredibolt
Getting into the Holy Bull Stakes, I assumed the race got here all the way down to Incredibolt and Practically. Whereas I used to be on level with my analysis of winner Practically, I whiffed on Incredibolt, who completed final of six and overwhelmed by 25 ¼ lengths within the Jan. 31 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. I’m holding out hope that it was one dangerous race from a 3-year-old who has proven actual expertise. The Bolt d’Oro colt entered the race with excessive expectations following a two-length victory Sept. 28 going a mile at Churchill Downs and a 1 ¾-length rating within the Grade 3 Avenue Sense Stakes. Incredibolt completed powerfully within the Avenue Sense with a remaining quarter-mile in :24.56 and a remaining furlong in :12.47 on the grime monitor that may host the Kentucky Derby, which is why I used to be so optimistic about his possibilities to be an elite 3-year-old. The Holy Bull was a step again, however it’s vital to do not forget that progress isn’t linear with animals. Maybe he wanted the race or, as coach Riley Mott speculated on FanDuel TV, didn’t take care of the Gulfstream floor.
3. Desert Gate
The Bob Baffert-trained Omaha Seashore colt returned from a four-month layoff to make his 3-year-old debut within the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park, the place he was the 6-5 favourite within the seven-horse subject. He was outshined by stablemate Plutarch, who outfinished American Pharoah Stakes winner Intrepido for a three-quarter-length win. Desert Gate was overwhelmed by 4 lengths whereas working fourth within the Robert B. Lewis, a disappointing however definitely not a devastating defeat. I anticipated extra from final 12 months’s Finest Pal Stakes winner and runner-up in each the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes, however he was getting back from an prolonged time away and really possible was not totally cranked up. Nonetheless, it’s regarding that in his final three stakes, Desert Gate has been in competition however couldn’t get the job carried out. He may be a reduce beneath the very best of the 3-year-old division.
Of be aware: The largest information outdoors of the Derby path races because the earlier version was the harm to reigning champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey that may sideline him for the 2026 Triple Crown races. Unbeaten in 4 begins, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA winner will probably be pointed to a return this summer season. It’s a big void on the 2026 Kentucky Derby path. … Three maiden winners who carried out beneath expectations of their stakes debuts have been D’code within the Southwest Stakes, Cannoneer within the Holy Bull Stakes, and Confessional within the Sam F. Davis Stakes. All three have been stretching out from sprints to two-turn races whereas stepping up when it comes to high quality of competitors. D’code, to me, seems like he may be an excellent sprinter.
