Friday’s $2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar shapes as much as be a wide-open affair, with completed fillies entered from California, New York, and Kentucky.
5 of the 9 starters have been competing, typically towards each other, at Del Mar and Santa Anita Park. That group is led by a pair of Bob Baffert trainees in #2 Bottle of Rouge, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes, and #7 Explora, runner-up within the Del Mar Debutante and subsequent winner of the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes Offered by Oak Tree Racing Affiliation.
The 1-2 finishers within the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland are additionally current in #5 Tommy Jo and #4 Percy’s Bar. Percy’s Bar really crossed the end line first within the Alcibiades however was disqualified and positioned second for bumping Tommy Jo within the stretch and knocking her off stride. New York is represented by undefeated #1 Iron Orchard, a state-bred Genuine filly who rallied late to take the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes by a nostril at Belmont on the Huge A, bettering to 3-for-3.
As my colleague Mike Curry is thought to level out, analyzing 2-year-old filly races is usually a problem. These kids typically make important and hard-to-predict enhancements, particularly in the course of the waning months of their juvenile campaigns. Which considered one of these fillies is able to attain an early profession peak Oct. 31 at Del Mar?
Honestly, I’d not be shocked to see any of those 9 fillies win the race, however for my high choice I’m going with #8 Tremendous Corredora, who’s listed at an interesting 15-1 odds on the morning line. This Gun Runner filly educated by John Sadler matches the profile of what I’m on the lookout for in a longshot. She’s raced 3 times, ending fifth behind Juvenile Fillies entrant #9 La Wally in her debut sprinting at Del Mar again in July, after which checking in second to Bottle of Rouge in an August 6 ½-furlong dash, additionally at Del Mar (one race earlier than Bottle of Rouge received the Del Mar Debutante).
Subsequent, in her first two-turn race, Tremendous Corredora overcame delicate early jostling within the first flip of a one-mile maiden occasion at Santa Anita on Oct. 11 to take a brief lead on the backstretch, put away the tempo presser, after which energy clear to a 8 ¼-length romp, relishing each little bit of the prolonged distance. Her pace figures have risen in all three races on each Beyer and Equibase calculations, and he or she adopted up her Santa Anita win with a swift four-furlong exercise on the observe Oct. 24. Signal me up!
Restricted to a bankroll of $30, my betting technique for this race is to wager $18 to win on Tremendous Corredora hoping that her post-time odds don’t drop an excessive amount of from 15-1. I’ll then key the filly in a $2 exacta over Explora (5-2 morning-line favourite), Percy’s Bar (9-2), and maiden winner #3 That means (15-1), totaling $6. That means shall be making her second profession begin within the Juvenile Fillies after profitable a 6 ½-furlong maiden race in late September at Los Alamitos by 3 ½ lengths. That is one other Gun Runner filly, out of an Into Mischief mare, and would possibly simply be able to shock when making an enormous class leap.
With my remaining $6, I’ll flip the exacta positions, placing Tremendous Corredora second.
Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range
$18 to win on Tremendous Corredora ($18)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, Race 7, $18 to win on 8
$2 exacta: Tremendous Corredora with That means, Percy’s Bar, and Explora ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, Race 7, $2 exacta, 8 with 3,4,7
$2 exacta: That means, Percy’s Bar, and Explora with Tremendous Corredora ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, Race 7, $2 exacta, 3,4,7 with 8
