As one in all simply two states holding statewide elections this fall, Virginia will likely be an early check of the messages voters will hear in subsequent yr’s midterm elections. Up to now, Virginia Republicans, led by Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears on the high of the ticket for Governor, are leaning onerous into the tradition warfare points that helped return Donald Trump to the White Home. Democrats, led by Consultant Abigail Spanberger, are operating on the financial system and rising costs.
At a marketing campaign rally to kick off early voting, which started final week, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin spoke in apocalyptic phrases of the “fork of darkness” and the “fork of fallacious” if voters select a Democratic administration. On the similar occasion, Earle-Sears, who’s operating to exchange the term-limited Youngkin, slammed Democrats on immigration and crime. “We don’t want extra criminals,” she informed rallygoers.
Spanberger, in the meantime, has unveiled an financial improvement plan for the state involving new investments in apprenticeships, job coaching and workforce improvement. She’s additionally criticized the GOP for a rising affordability disaster. “The Trump price range raises well being care prices, raises mortgages, raises the value of electrical energy and fuel,” as one advert declares.
Up to now, polls present Spanberger having fun with a constant lead over Earle-Sears, and Spanberger additionally holds a formidable money benefit. In July and August, Spanberger raised $14 million, in comparison with simply $5.2 million by Earle-Sears. Historical past, furthermore, favors a Spanberger victory; in all however one occasion, Virginia’s off-year races have at all times favored the social gathering that misplaced the White Home. So Democrats shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of right into a win, cautions pollster Pete Brodnitz, founding father of Expedition Methods. “No state is a microcosm of the nation,” he stated. Brodnitz’s purchasers have included former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Jeff Merkeley (D-OR) and Chris Coons (D-DE), amongst others.
This transcript has been edited for size and readability. The complete interview is obtainable on Spotify, YouTube, and iTunes.
Anne Kim: Simply to catch folks up, Virginia is selecting a brand new governor, lieutenant governor and legal professional basic this fall and all 100 members of the Home of Delegates. It’s one of many only a few states that has an off yr election—New Jersey is the opposite. Earlier than we get into the dynamics of the race itself, inform us what this election represents so far as the hopes and desires of each events nationally. Is it a bellwether for 2026 and even 2028?
Pete Brodnitz: Folks typically think about it a bellwether, however the actuality is that’s generally presages what occurs within the subsequent yr and generally it doesn’t. If nationwide themes grow to be a part of the marketing campaign, then it provides you an concept of how these themes may play out within the subsequent nationwide elections. It’s additionally kind of an “off-off Broadway” election, so turnout turns into essential.
The race may grow to be a bellwether within the sense that it provides you a sign of which facet appears to be galvanized to point out up in an off-off-year election. Generally the Virginia elections are nearly issues which might be happening in Virginia, however on this case, Trump is a part of the controversy.
Nevertheless, Virginia just isn’t precisely like the remainder of the nation. No state is a microcosm of the nation. Virginia is similar to the nation in some methods, but it surely’s additionally completely different in a very essential respect as a result of it’s very various. It has rural space and concrete ones. It’s largely suburban, but it surely’s additionally some of the college-educated states by way of the proportion of the general public that has a school training. New Jersey, by the best way, can also be some of the college-educated states. So each of them are slightly completely different from the remainder of the nation, and that’s actually essential as a result of whether or not or not you could have a school diploma tends to narrate to the way you’re going to vote nowadays. In order that’s an enormous caveat on saying that what occurs in Virginia or New Jersey signifies what’s going to occur nationally.
Anne Kim: Let’s take a look at the gubernatorial candidates and what every of them brings to the desk. Abigail Spanberger is a former intelligence officer and was the primary Democrat in 50 years to win Virginia’s 7th district, which was the seat previously held by [former House Majority Leader] Eric Cantor. After which on the opposite facet—additionally history-making, Winston Earle-Sears is Virginia’s first Black Lieutenant Governor and the first Black girl to ever maintain statewide workplace in Virginia. Additionally a veteran, she served within the Marine Corps, after which earlier than that she was within the Virginia Home of Delegates. What do their biographies inform you concerning the nature of this race and what each events is perhaps enthusiastic about who is perhaps their commonplace bearers going ahead?
Pete Brodnitz: Humorous sufficient, Virginia truly has a really unhealthy file on the subject of electing girls to statewide workplace. It’s one of many solely states that has by no means elected a feminine governor and but each nominees are girls. I don’t assume it’s a centerpiece of the marketing campaign, but it surely’s an uncommon reality on the subject of how they compete with each other.
One other uncommon facet of this marketing campaign is that the Republican candidate is Black, and that’s a very essential constituency that largely votes for the Democratic candidate. So it signifies that either side should compete closely for that group of voters, which is normally about 16 % of the citizens.
Virginia can also be one of many states that has the most important currentor previous army service inhabitants, so there’s a very large army element to the Virginia citizens. There are essential army bases, and an enormous naval presence in Virginia Seaside, plus the Pentagon in northern Virginia.
So to have two candidates with a army background additionally means you’ve acquired an uncommon competitors taking place. Often you might need one candidate who has that type of background, but it surely’s fairly uncommon to have two. I don’t know that there’s a parallel.
Anne Kim: Let’s flip then to the query of marketing campaign points and the methods the campaigns are utilizing. Taking a look at their marketing campaign adverts, it positively appears that Earle-Sears is leaning in on tradition points—her new advert assaults transgender Individuals—whereas Abigail Spanberger’s adverts are targeted on kitchen-table points and affordability. They’re very completely different appeals. How do you assume these messages are going to land in Virginia?
Pete Brodnitz: So I’m taking a look at a Roanoke faculty ballot that simply got here out a couple of weeks in the past, and it appears like financial points are the highest concern. And that’s slightly difficult for the Republicans—or no less than it needs to be.
One of many questions the ballot requested is whom do you belief on inflation and rising costs, and it’s principally a tie. Thirty-six % say they belief Republicans extra, and 33 % belief Democrats extra. So why does that matter?
Elections and campaigns are designed to try to management the query voters are asking themselves once they go and vote. So if Sears is making an attempt to manage the dialogue, she most likely needs voters to assume she going to be a governor like Youngkin, who has good scores in that Roanoke ballot.
So it looks as if Spanberger is making an attempt to compete on the bread and butter points to try to create slightly bit extra of a bonus than perhaps she has proper now, in line with this one ballot. And this ballot, by the best way, says folks don’t know both candidate all that properly. There’s slightly little bit of a Democratic benefit basically, however on that financial situation, it’s virtually a draw.
Donald Trump can also be very unpopular in Virginia. He misplaced the state, by the best way, and he misplaced the state with a bigger margin than previous Republican candidates for governor. He’s not a well-liked man on this state. So Spanberger is making an attempt to make Earle-Sears not a Youngkin Republican, however a Trump Republican. She’s most likely hoping to generate good turnout within the off-year election by doing that—ensuring that Democratic voters who may take a go on the election bear in mind Donald Trump and bear in mind to point out up.
Anne Kim: What extent is that this race truly a referendum on Trump or a referendum on Youngkin?
Pete Brodnitz: They’ll select to make it a referendum or not make it a referendum. From what I’ve seen, it appears just like the Spanberger facet is selecting to make a referendum on Trump. As an example, they’re now operating an advert that options the endorsement of two former Republican members of Congress. In order that’s about getting cross-party help. That’s a pitch to impartial voters who’re sick of partisan politics.
Now, the problem right here the place precisely are they operating that advert? As a result of should you run that type of factor in rural Virginia, you might need the identical type of expertise that Terry McAuliffe had in opposition to Youngkin, while you run an advert in opposition to Trump and generate enthusiasm among the many Trump voters.
Anne Kim: For the time being, there’s a whole lot of rage in Northern Virginia as a result of there are such a lot of federal employees—and former federal employees—who’ve been bearing the brunt of Trump’s assaults on federal employees, firings by DOGE, funding cuts at NIH, troops in DC, you title it. How is all that going to issue into this query of turnout and may the Northern Virginia turnout swamp what’s taking place in different components of the state?
Pete Brodnitz: I believe it’s an enormous downside for the Republican facet. There’s going to be a whole lot of Democratic enthusiasm due to the concern and the frustration that you just simply described. Democrats will likely be relying on banking votes in Northern Virginia.
Anne Kim: Final query: What do you foresee as having the potential of radically altering the dynamics of the race because it appears like right this moment? What are some doable eventualities that would actually scramble what occurs in November or change the trajectory that we’re seeing now?
Pete Brodnitz: Effectively, the Trump administration is doing what they will to guarantee that we don’t have a whole lot of details about the well being of the financial system—altering the pinnacle of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now saying that perhaps we shouldn’t have company reporting. I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s an intentional gambit to guarantee that there’s much less data publicly obtainable concerning the well being of the financial system. And the explanation why I say it’s as a result of the massive factor that would change is us truly tipping into this recession that we’ve been on the cusp of now for a very long time.
As a result of if we do tip right into a recession, it’s due to the Trump tariffs. And by way of voters connecting the dots between a recession and something that may have triggered the recession, I believe the almost definitely reply that voters will give you is that tariffs actually didn’t work out for the financial system.
Effectively, that makes the financial points far more entrance and middle. It additionally makes it tougher to run on the Youngkin file if folks understand that the Virginia financial system is weak. For me, that’s most likely the almost definitely factor. The one different can be that we go to warfare with Venezuela or Venezuela goes to warfare with us as a result of the USA is bombing their boats. In case you go to warfare, that would change the dynamic, notably in a state that has a heavy army inhabitants, however that’s a very large unknown.
Associated
