Снявший голову, по волосам не плачут
(When your head is lower off, you don’t cry about your hair)
– Outdated Russian Proverb
OPINION – Russia is readying for Victory Day celebrations at a time when Moscow is something however victorious as its unprovoked battle on Ukraine enters its fifth 12 months of destruction and devastation. And for the primary time, the affect of that battle will probably be on full show in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping to remind Russians of the achievements of the Soviet Union of their defeat of Nazi Germany. He additionally needs them to consider that it’s he, Putin, who has returned Russia as a navy energy to its correct place within the pantheon of world states. However this 12 months’s Victory Day celebration and its centerpiece parade by Pink Sq. will probably be one thing fairly totally different starting from who will probably be there, to what will probably be on show.
Partly out of concern over potential Ukrainian drone strikes, there will probably be only a few international leaders or dignitaries in attendance. There’ll even be lowered illustration of the management of the Russian Federation current on Lenin’s tomb – the standard place of honor. Within the parade itself, there will probably be no Russian navy {hardware} (armored automobiles and missiles) pushed by the sq..
The diminishment of the parade is a giant deal, having witnessed 5 of them myself, I’ve seen what the victory celebration means to many Russians. The discount within the dimension of the parade is clearly out of concern for a potential Ukrainian assault, however a extra trustworthy celebration this 12 months can be for the present management of Russia to acknowledge the accountability of the Soviet Union for the Second World Conflict beginning within the first place – with the division of Jap Europe between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union as outlined within the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August 1939, which grew to become often known as the German-Soviet non-aggression pact. It was signed instantly previous Hitler’s invasion of Poland on September 1 of that very same 12 months.
Immediately, President Putin is reportedly exhibiting extreme concern about his personal safety each from the specter of Ukrainian drone assaults (anti-drone patrol boats are reportedly seen on the Moscow River close to the Kremlin) and the specter of potential assault by Ukrainian or Russian assassins in Moscow.
Putin is reportedly doing most of his work from a bunker complicated in Russia’s Krasnodar area and avoiding his typical residences within the Moscow area and Valdai. He’s additionally instituting extraordinary safety protocols for guests paying homage to these he instituted in the course of the COVID period. He has dramatically lowered public appearances up to now few months. And maybe additionally consultant of Putin’s rising paranoia, in March, Russian safety forces arrested Russian Tsalikov, former Minister of Protection Shoigu’s very long time Deputy on corruption fees. However sources in Russia recommend the true cause for the arrest was concern that he was concerned in plotting a coup. This, as there may be rising proof of criticism of Putin’s regime on social media and in navy blogger communities, maybe contributing to the regime’s efforts to restrict communications on Telegram and the shutting down of the web in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and different cities.
Maybe enjoying most vital in Putin’s issues over his personal safety and regime stability is the efficacy with which Ukraine is attacking vitality infrastructure within the Russian Federation and the impact these assaults are having on the Russian economic system.
In 2025 alone, Ukraine carried out greater than 140 strikes on refineries, ports and logistics hubs in Russia with some targets positioned deep inside Russian territory. This 12 months, Ukraine has carried out over 40 deep strikes, and the tempo of these strikes is rising, as evidenced by the success of Ukrainian assaults on Russian bases, naval targets within the Black Sea and assaults towards ships which can be a part of Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” working within the Mediterranean and elsewhere. These assaults are significant however not as economically impactful as those focusing on Russia’s vitality infrastructure.
All through the second half of April, Ukraine made the Black Sea resort of Tuapse its major goal. Tuapse is a sprawling oil metropolis – dwelling to a Rosneft oil refinery, one in every of Russia’s oldest, which operates alongside an export terminal that ships petroleum merchandise abroad. From April 16 to Could 1, Ukraine hit the city 4 instances, damaging each the terminal and the refinery. The drone strikes led to a real ecological disaster.
Video photographs of the fires on the refinery had been surprising. Plumes of smoke had been reportedly seen from orbit and poisonous black rain fell throughout the town with burning petroleum pouring down a minimum of one of many metropolis’s streets. Air high quality exams reportedly confirmed excessive ranges of carcinogenic benzene and xylene within the air in addition to poisonous soot. And regardless of Putin’s greatest efforts to manage state information media and shut down the web, he nonetheless can not conceal the impact of assaults corresponding to these on Tuapse in addition to the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk – from the Russian folks.
Ukrainian assaults are economically consequential. In keeping with numerous sources, there have been over $13 billion in losses to Russia’s oil sector and as much as 40% of Russia’s refining capability has been disrupted or is now working underneath lowered situations. The assaults on Russian ports have resulted in durations of exports dropping by 50% throughout peak durations. The Ukrainian assaults have lowered Russia’s income achieve from the ill-timed, if short-term, U.S. lifting of sanctions on Russian vitality. For a rustic that depends considerably on revenues from hydrocarbon gross sales, it is a severe blow.
There are home penalties as nicely, Russia has been pressured to reintroduce a ban on gasoline exports (April–July 2026), whereas home gasoline costs have already elevated by 6–8%. Most of Russia’s refining capability was modernized by western vitality corporations within the post-Soviet interval. These applied sciences are not obtainable to Russia as a result of sanctions. Putin’s vitality challenges are solely going to worsen and financing the invasion of Ukraine is just going to get harder.
Compounding the issue set for the Russian chief in Krasnodar, former U.S. envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg has just lately remarked that Russia is shedding the battle as a result of “astronomical” casualties, estimating 1.2-1.4 million Russian troops killed or wounded. These are World Conflict Two stage losses and evaluate unfavorably to the 18,000 misplaced by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Russia is unable to switch misplaced troops on the tempo they’re being killed or wounded and not using a basic mobilization. The troops that are being despatched to Ukraine as replacements are much more poorly skilled, ready, and geared up than their predecessors – which can partially clarify why Russian casualties are mounting and Russia continues to be unable to accumulate significant tracts of Ukrainian territory.
One different danger to contemplate if Putin is feeling remoted and paranoid is the safety companies and management of the Baltic States which can be more and more expressing issues of a Russian provocation towards their international locations underneath the pretext – particularly within the case of Estonia – defending towards repression of the ethnic Russian inhabitants.
One will recall that this was a part of the rationale for Russia’s occupation of Crimea and assist for the insurrections in Donetsk and Luhansk in addition to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Related issues have appeared in menace assessments by the safety companies of latest NATO members Sweden and Finland. The worry in these international locations is that Putin will assault, forcing NATO international locations to behave in accordance with Article V of the NATO Constitution. And Putin is betting that the Trump Administration will refuse to conform, thus ending NATO as it’s at present structured. Congress might not let Trump renege on America’s dedication in such a state of affairs.
Judging from a few of the feedback coming from Ukrainian and different officers on the recently-concluded Kyiv Safety Discussion board, there’s a perceptible sense of optimism in Kyiv and elsewhere that Ukraine might win this battle in spite of everything – regardless of the discount or cessation of assist underneath the Trump Administration. President Trump is legendary for his disdain of being related to “losers.” It could make sense then for him to rethink his affiliation with Putin and his stance on supporting Ukraine.
Subsequent 12 months presently, there could also be a Victory Day parade on the Maidan Sq. in Kyiv and neither Trump nor Vice President JD Vance will probably be invited. Discuss ending up on the mistaken facet of historical past.
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